Schrödinger’s Customers
Knock knock - are you in there?
Have you ever wondered how many of the prospects in your database are actually interested in becoming a customer? Have you ever really asked them? Like, directly asked them? Probably not. They may be in a nurture cycle, a newsletter list or some other kind of drip campaign - but you’ve probably not asked them directly. Yet. Because it would be rude to just ask them if they are actually going to buy something - that is until you have taken them through a marketing or sales funnel.
It got me thinking this week that these prospects are essentially Schrödinger’s Customers. They are simultaneously interested and disinterested. Prospect and customer. Valuable and junk. And until you ask them - you won’t know.
In case you don’t know about Erwin Schrödinger, here’s a short summary : In 1935 Erwin had a discussion with Albert Einstein which led to a famous thought experiment that demonstrates the idea in quantum physics that tiny particles can be in two states at once until they're observed. It asks you to imagine a cat in a box with a mechanism that might kill it. Until you look inside, the cat is both alive and dead at the same time. This experiment is often referred to as Schrödinger's cat. There are many articles and videos about this if you’d like to learn more. And there is much more to learn.
So, back to our Schrödinger's Customers, as long as you don’t ask them what their intentions are, then they are both customer and prospect (and non-prospect) at the same time. The very act of asking them will cause them to be labelled. And so, they remain both interested and and not-interested. You would think this wouldn’t be a Good Thing. However, most of us marketeers (especially those in the database marketing space) like to be judged by the size of our database. Big database is good. Small database is bad. An enormous database is even better. Especially if we have captured some really rich data, like Job Titles and Opt-in status. (There’s a lot of sarcasm here, sorry, it’s my default setting).
One of the reasons why response rates are so poor (like 1% or less for email marketing) is not just that people don’t open emails, and junk folders are really effective and black lists / grey lists exist - it’s that most of your database just isn’t into you. I’m sorry. They don’t care, they aren’t in the market, they were just ‘doing research’ or they signed up to win a PS5 at some point and opting out is such a drama.
The introduction of GDPR in 2018 created a bit of a kerfuffle in the world of database marketing. Suddenly, all of the prospects in your database needed to be hard-opted in (explicit) rather than soft-opted in (implicit) - which created a tsunami of emails to most of us from people we hadn’t heard from in years, asking us if we like to keep receiving information. I had a memorable one from the Renault Owners Club, I’d owned a Renault Sport Clio 182 in 2004, and joined the owners club in order to win a ticket for the Silverstone F1 Grand Prix (I actually did win a ticket). The funny thing is - 14 years had passed since I’d sold the car. In those 14 years, I don’t recall ever getting an email from the owners club. So, I opted out. I can’t even imagine how many opt-outs were generated in the last weeks of May 2018. I think I sent more than 50, maybe as many as 100. It became a bit of a fun task in the morning. Some busy work over breakfast. It was great that all these old companies wanted to know if I was still interested. I wasn’t.
Anecdotal evidence (people told me) implied that some prospect databases had been decimated. As many as 80% of their ‘prospects’ had now opted-out. Or not opted-in, but that’s basically the same thing when it comes to GDPR. Consent is explicit. The lack of consent does not imply consent. According to a paper from London Economics in 2017 it was estimated that the average number of prospects that could be targeted for marketing purposes post GDPR would decrease by over 40 percentage points.
So, with the implication that you could wipe out 40% of your prospect database with a single email…. better not to ask then. Also consider that the acquisition of prospect data is both time consuming and expensive. You paid good money for those names! Why would you want to opt them out? So they become Schrödinger's Customers. They might be prospects, they might not. Until you ask them, they are both. And it’s probably best not to ask them as there is a 50/50 chance they’ll opt out. (I’ve rounded up from 40 to 50 as data degrades over time, and assuming you don’t know if they are a prospect or not implies that time has passed. So we can assume 25% of the 40% is junk data. I didn’t study maths so don’t fight me).
But, maybe having a smaller database is a good thing. <insert joke about it’s not the size of your database, it’s what you do with it here>
Maybe having a high-quality, rich database of known prospects, who are opted-in and well profiled would let you better target your marketing messages. It would let you create more engagement, organise better events. Increase response rates and build a community of pre-customers (did I make up a new thing?). Maybe they are interested in what you do, but don’t want to buy it. Yet.
This is already rambling so let me bring it back to some summary points :
> Having a big database of potential prospects isn’t necessarily a good thing
> Asking people if they are actually interested is scary but essential. It’s all about consent
> Having a highly engaged audience of prospects gives you a better chance of connecting with the right people at the right time
2018’s GDPR panic created a wave of stock emails that were robotic, unfriendly and encouraged opt-outs. This was the equivalent of kicking the box containing Schrödinger's Cat, smashing the flask of poison and killing the cat.
So, how to open the box without killing the cat? Well, in Schrödinger's world you can’t. But luckily we don’t, so we can.
The secret is to do it carefully and with consideration. A series of gentle prompts and questions, delivered in a variety of different ways - giving lots of opportunity to opt-in and ways to opt-out. Make it clear that you would enjoy having them interact in the community and be involved in discussions. Send them news and opinions. Invite them to events - and discover what challenges you could solve, or what synergies could develop.
Don’t be scared to ask people if they aren’t interested. It’s important to know. Having a database of Schrödinger's customers does have a cost. The wasted time and energy of repeatedly calling them and targeting them. Maybe even sending them gifts in the mail (ah, the good old days). The cost of endless reporting trying to figure out how to get from a 1% response rate to a 3% response rate. Is it the message? Is it the product? Is it the database? Is it our data segmentation software? Is it Dave the Database Marketing Guy? (Guess what, it’s the data…)
What to do? Build a plan (check it twice) set some goals, prepare for the worst and get excited to finally reveal the magic one thousand prospects who care. Then take care of them, nurture them and you’ll soon see results.
Of course, I’m good at this stuff - so call me, I can help.
Plus, I’m working on a Badaas plan to execute on this. More to come…
